What’s on TV tonight? Don’t miss Conflict Zone on SABC 3

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Deal or No Deal is a thrilling, once-in-a lifetime game of chance where contestants select one of twenty sealed boxes. Each box contains a cash amount, ranging from R1 to R250 000. As the game unfolds, and as the cash values of the boxes are revealed, the contestant is offered an amount in exchange for their box by the show’s Banker.

Deal or no deal is a television game show first developed in Holland, but now shown in more than eighty countries. It is loved by many, but considered by others to be no more exciting than watching paint dry. The format of the game, and the best strategy to win, have prompted much discussion, with articles on the programme appearing in some very serious economics journals!

Each box is allocated to a contestant, one of whom is selected at random to be the main player. Let’s call the main player Charlotte. Charlotte chooses a number of other boxes (in the first round this is five boxes) and their contents are revealed. Those boxes are now out of the game. A banker, Bill, then offers to give Charlotte some money in exchange for her box, based on the value of the boxes that are left in the game. If she accepts the offer the game ends, if she rejects it, more boxes are opened, new offers are made, until eventually either Charlotte accepts an offer, or she is left with whatever is in her box. One might think that since the chance of Charlotte choosing the box with £250,000 at the outset is 1/22 then one game in every 22 will end with the jackpot being won. In fact in the first 2600 UK shows only seven players have won the top prize. A staggeringly low figure of 0.3% of contestants! So how do the programme makers ensure that so few contestants win the jackpot?